Bangladesh-Pakistan 3rd ODI: Talat Scare May Force Pakistan Change

Pakistan tied the series in Mirpur on March 13, but the thing people will remember going into the final match is Hussain Talat being taken off the field on a stretcher – he’d injured his left shoulder close to the boundary. The PCB stated the severity of the injury wouldn’t be clear until further tests, so Pakistan go into Sunday, March 15 with a clear gap in the team and little time to find the correct solution.

Talat’s scores in the series – 4 in the first match and 9 in the second ODI – aren’t impressive at first. His worth is in other areas: he offers a left-hand middle-order batter, is a seam-bowling allrounder, and is one of the few in this new Pakistan team who stops it from being too heavy on either batting or bowling.

Can Pakistan really afford to lose the one player who allows them to remain adaptable? Adaptability has been more important than form in this series, with Bangladesh beating Pakistan by eight wickets after bowling them out for 114 in the first ODI; then Pakistan got a 128-run DLS win after making 274 and getting Bangladesh out for the same 114 in the second.

This makes the third ODI between Bangladesh and Pakistan less about who has the advantage, and more about how the teams are put together. On March 15 at the Shere Bangla National Stadium, the final match could depend on one decision: does Pakistan attempt to find a player to directly replace Talat, or do they at last go for a more focused bowling attack?

Why Talat is more important than his runs

Pakistan came to Bangladesh in a state of change. Babar Azam and Saim Ayub were left out, six players who hadn’t been capped were in the team, and four new players were put into the first ODI – so this is not a team with firm ODI roles throughout.

Given this, Talat’s injury is more significant. His 13 runs in two innings don’t show much impact, but he has allowed Pakistan to keep Faheem Ashraf further down the order, maintain a left-right balance in the middle, and have another seam option without seeming to lose batting power.

In a regular team, losing a player who made 4 and 9 might not be a huge problem. However, in this Pakistan team, it could lead to the biggest change in selection in the series, as Talat’s absence affects the over plan, the batting order, and the amount of risk Pakistan can deal with when using Abdul Samad and the less experienced top-order players.

Pakistan’s most likely decision, Abrar returns and a stronger attack

The best option is for Abrar Ahmed to come back. Pakistan swapped him for Haris Rauf in the second ODI, and Haris has almost certainly played well enough to be in the final match after getting 3 for 26 in the win which levelled the series.

This leaves Talat’s place as the clearest chance for a regular bowler. Abrar looks like the best choice from those on the bench, not just as cover, but as a sign that Pakistan are prepared to attack Mirpur with clearer roles and more bite in the middle overs.

Statistics back this up too. ESPN’s data before the final match shows Abrar with 13 wickets in his first five ODIs, with an economy rate of 3.95, and this ground has already shown how quickly an innings can fall apart when a spell is good: Pakistan went from 41 without loss to 114 all out in the first match, and Bangladesh went from 73 for 4 to 114 all out in the second.

There is an option for Saad Masood if Pakistan want to keep the allrounder shape, as he is in the team and fits the general description better than a wicketkeeper like Ghazi Ghori. However, Saad is one of the uncapped players in this team, and asking another new player to decide a series final on a pitch this changeable seems a bigger risk than bringing Abrar back.

Faisal Akram is another player in the team, but he would be a more uncertain spin option. Abrar gives Pakistan a quicker answer, one based on recent ODI results, and one that allows Shaheen Afridi, Haris Rauf and Mohammad Wasim to keep doing what worked in the second ODI instead of making Faheem and Salman do cover roles they weren’t chosen for.

So the biggest change may not be obvious in the scores. It may simply be Pakistan accepting that, without Talat, their best way forward is a stronger five-bowler plan, with Maaz Sadaqat’s left-arm spin as a useful addition rather than a way to get out of trouble.

Maaz Sadaqat has changed what people are thinking

Pakistan can think this way only after Maaz’s performance in the second ODI. He followed his 18 runs in the first match with 75 off 46 in the second, made a 103-run partnership with Sahibzada Farhan, and then took 3 for 23 in Bangladesh’s chase.

This performance changed how Pakistan were thinking about the final match. Maaz is now appearing as a proper all-rounder, and a top-order batter, not merely a substitute in a changing team; this offers Pakistan the chance to play a specialist bowler instead of Talat.

This is particularly important when put alongside the first ODI, where Pakistan’s batting lineup was completely undone by Nahid Rana – 5 for 24, dismissing Farhan, Maaz, Shamyl Hussain, Mohammad Rizwan and Salman Agha – and only Faheem Ashraf’s 37 got the total past 100.

The second ODI was much more promising. Farhan scored 31, Rizwan 44, and Salman 64, and the 109-run partnership between Rizwan and Salman rebuilt the innings following Shamyl’s dismissal for 6.

However, this doesn’t mean Pakistan’s batting is suddenly secure. It does mean Talat’s injury doesn’t lead to complete worry, as the responsibility can now be more easily shared between Rizwan, Salman and Maaz, with Abdul Samad and Faheem in assisting, not rescuing, roles.

Bangladesh have the easier job when it comes to team selection

Bangladesh, however, have the easier job when it comes to team selection. They used the same XI for the second ODI, after winning the first, and even in losing, their approach was more settled than Pakistan’s, with Litton Das making 41, Towhid Hridoy 28, Mehidy Hasan Miraz taking 2 for 34, and Rishad Hossain 3 for 56.

The home team know what they are good at. Nahid can break up the top order, Taskin Ahmed and Mustafizur Rahman can control the new ball, Mehidy and Rishad can restrict the middle order, and Tanzid Hasan, in the first ODI, already showed Bangladesh are capable of making a small target into a quick win with his 67 off 42 balls.

Pakistan have found more potential than many thought, but Bangladesh still look like the team with the more reliable plan. That is important in a final match, particularly after two games which were not won by steady control, but by sudden collapses.

Weather and batting remain central

ESPNcricinfo’s preview of the final game centred on the same issue for both teams – the need for the batters to perform – and pointed to the weather as a factor, as rain and hail interrupted the second ODI. Dhaka’s forecast for March 15th suggests thunderstorms in the early evening, so another shortened match is possible.

What the final game is really asking of Pakistan

If Talat is out, Pakistan’s most obvious XI would be Sahibzada Farhan, Maaz Sadaqat, Shamyl Hussain, Mohammad Rizwan, Salman Agha, Abdul Samad, Faheem Ashraf, Shaheen Afridi, Mohammad Wasim, Haris Rauf and Abrar Ahmed. This selection isn’t full of batting skill, but it does give Pakistan real wicket-taking options throughout the innings and keeps the batting order straightforward.

A rain-reduced match wouldn’t hurt that case. Shorter games put more value on strong opening spells with the new ball and wicket-taking bursts, and Pakistan’s recovery in the second ODI was based on exactly that, with Shaheen taking 2 for 22, Haris 3 for 26, and Maaz getting three wickets as Bangladesh attempted to rebuild.

That is the reason Talat’s injury could cause Pakistan’s biggest change of the tour. The move might be from a flexible team on paper, to a more certain team in reality, one that trusts bowling variety, clearer roles and a more honest assessment of the conditions in Mirpur.

Key Points

Summary

Pakistan did the hard thing on Friday. They brought the series back from a difficult start and found a genuine player in Maaz Sadaqat, whose progress has given this young ODI team some more form and confidence.

The final match now requires a cooler decision. If Talat is ruled out, Pakistan should stop trying to keep every possible balance and pick the XI which gives them the clearest identity, and in Mirpur at the moment that looks like a bowling-first team supported by Rizwan and Salman in the middle.

Watch the toss, then watch the team sheet. That first announcement might tell you more about Sunday’s Bangladesh-Pakistan 3rd ODI than any prediction made the night before.